Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 14.126264 16.124743 18.267464 20.731296 23.481537 26.452371 29.899594
2025-09-07 11.180965 13.914046 17.064450 20.946170 25.580699 30.916106 37.501416
2025-09-14 9.849542 12.951511 16.694560 21.509112 27.499193 34.665192 43.840983
2025-09-21 8.480605 11.735804 15.832698 21.312587 28.387837 37.146288 48.730201
2025-09-28 7.137967 10.352815 14.557592 20.384165 28.160577 38.082916 51.584802
2025-10-05 6.595250 9.956741 14.499087 20.983194 29.879371 41.517870 57.728661
2025-10-12 6.082532 9.534504 14.343278 21.399048 31.328060 44.617311 63.522615
2025-10-19 5.473487 8.904928 13.830439 21.254136 31.960730 46.608698 67.872595
2025-10-26 4.929967 8.313652 13.312238 21.041196 32.450046 48.384018 71.956003
2025-11-02 4.519110 7.882327 12.986116 21.067475 33.255068 50.601774 76.710150
2025-11-09 4.192956 7.551237 12.778555 21.241953 34.263288 53.124460 81.967440
2025-11-16 3.846096 7.152072 12.429817 21.165448 34.872581 55.070916 86.441445
2025-11-23 3.500907 6.730422 12.022682 20.983033 35.327895 56.837676 90.772894
2025-11-30 3.250063 6.447713 11.818181 21.105453 36.253571 59.336712 96.283330
2025-12-07 3.112326 6.350659 11.909924 21.705672 37.947910 63.050571 103.739323
2025-12-14 2.846657 5.994677 11.532652 21.496048 38.318670 64.725194 108.122076
2025-12-21 2.493304 5.438745 10.763000 20.564447 37.446402 64.399260 109.363745
2025-12-28 2.404792 5.384355 10.879278 21.166743 39.145046 68.203963 117.211198
2026-01-04 2.296157 5.279498 10.894269 21.586258 40.546062 71.571369 124.464670
2026-01-11 2.120411 5.021505 10.605617 21.440071 40.962135 73.340155 129.194045
2026-01-18 1.951633 4.761169 10.292195 21.225555 41.240548 74.879908 133.586536
2026-01-25 1.825640 4.579585 10.116317 21.252016 41.938198 77.133282 139.211987
2026-02-01 1.726026 4.445931 10.024165 21.427839 42.904998 79.865917 145.709194